Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Financial Bull Market Run?



Let this be no surprise to my readers, but the financials rallied hard today. Thanks to the news that the Obama Administration is working on a deal to do something with the toxic debt on the banks balance sheets. Before I go any further into detail, let me start by giving you my outlook on the market. I tend to have a weekly outlook as oppose to a annual outlook like most investment firms or analyst have. Reason being is that there are surprises in earnings and major economic news that can alter the performance of the market, for better or for worse. With this said, I didn't give you an outlook for January, and will tell you what my market out look is on this coming Sunday. I am short term bull, for now and trading strictly on technical analysis and any rumors or news. The news that came out yesterday was a prelude of what is yet to come. But let us digest what was really in the news article in simple terms. We all know the financial sector is in bad shape, and most of the institutions are still in grave danger of going chapter 11. Things aren't getting any better here at home or abroad. All the was said yesterday was, that the current administration is working on a deal on what to do with the toxic assets, and set to finalize the deal sometime next week. Not exactly specific at all, but there was a positive reaction Tuesday night and follow through today. Come to think of it, this isn't really classified as news. Even though this is fact, there is a sense of hope that this might help lift the financial sector. I mean they already got a bail out, now what? Of course if there's a trend in financial news, is that the initial reaction is always positive, but then followed by a strong down trend. Let us study the government intervention in July 2007 when the financial sector was getting crushed. The Government came in and said hey guess what you can't short sell stocks in financials. All they did was prolong the problem. They came in and pointed fingers at the hedge funds, short sellers, traders, etc that they were part of the cause for the down turn in the market. Guess what, even with the short selling ban, there was still a continue deterioration in the market place. Long story short, Wall Street has a problem and it has to do with the financial sectors, more specifically with some of the big name banks. They are a threat to our financial system and the Government knows that play to big a role in our system and can't fail. Until this deal is finalize, we might see a continue bull run. Remember, the stock market is trading in a channel. Looking at the S&P support is at 800, the first level of resistance is at 850 and second is at 900 which it looks where we are headed to. I took my profit on UYG at 3.90 and change, not bad for an entry at 3.50. Wells Fargo Bank lead the financials higher, which lead the overall market to go higher. After dumping my UYG I took a modest position in the Proshares Ultra S&P 500 NYSE symbol SSO at 24.40, and just patiently waiting on the sidelines looking at the Direxion UltraShort Financials NYSE symbol FAZ as it approaches its support at $35. I don't think this financial run is going to last long, and strongly believe it will fade fast, but for now I'll play the S&P for another few points.

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